Token unlocksPrice impact
Do token unlocks move the price?
How 14 tokens traded against bitcoin around 304 scheduled unlocks since 2020: in the week before, on the day and in the week after, set against an ordinary week for the same tokens.
Week before
−3.5%
median vs bitcoin, 1.0% worse than an ordinary week
Unlock day
−0.5%
median move vs bitcoin
Week after
−2.3%
median vs bitcoin, about the same as an ordinary week
Median move against bitcoin
The week after an unlock looks much like any other week. The median token moved −2.3% against bitcoin over the 7 days from the unlock and lagged it 61% of the time; in an ordinary week the same tokens moved −2.5% and lagged 61% of the time. Altcoins trailed bitcoin through most of these years, unlock or not.
The week before is −3.5% overall, 1.0% worse than an ordinary week. The one group that stands out is large unlocks: for unlocks of more than 2% of the max supply the token fell a median −8.7% against bitcoin in the week leading up to the date, when the unlock is known and holders can sell or hedge ahead of it.
By size of the unlock
| Unlocks | Week before | Unlock day | Week after | Lagged BTC after | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 0.5% of supply | 62 | −3.4% | −0.4% | −1.1% | 61% |
| 0.5% to 2% of supply | 208 | −2.5% | −0.4% | −2.6% | 62% |
| Over 2% of supply | 34 | −8.7% | −2.2% | −2.2% | 59% |
| An ordinary week | 11,872 | −2.5% | — | −2.5% | 61% |
Size against the max supply. Medians; moves are the token’s change minus bitcoin’s over the same days.
By who receives it
| Unlocks | Week before | Unlock day | Week after | Lagged BTC after | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mostly team and investors | 227 | −2.9% | −0.5% | −2.2% | 62% |
| Mostly ecosystem, treasury, other | 77 | −4.4% | −0.1% | −2.3% | 60% |
| An ordinary week | 11,872 | −2.5% | — | −2.5% | 61% |
By token
| Unlocks | Week before | Unlock day | Week after | Lagged BTC after | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aptos | 48 | −2.5% | 0.0% | −3.6% | 60% |
| Sui | 42 | −1.8% | −0.3% | −1.3% | 62% |
| Avalanche | 38 | −2.8% | −0.9% | −0.4% | 58% |
| Arbitrum | 32 | −4.0% | −0.6% | −0.4% | 59% |
| Starknet | 31 | −4.1% | −1.2% | −3.3% | 74% |
| Ethena | 31 | −4.2% | −0.7% | −0.3% | 52% |
| ZKsync | 17 | −1.4% | +0.2% | −6.5% | 82% |
| LayerZero | 17 | −5.9% | +0.9% | −2.0% | 53% |
| io.net | 16 | −5.0% | −0.8% | −0.2% | 50% |
| EigenCloud | 14 | −3.4% | −3.6% | −2.7% | 64% |
| Plasma | 13 | −4.7% | +1.2% | −5.2% | 62% |
| Pyth Network | 3 | −23.9% | +8.3% | +5.0% | 33% |
| An ordinary week | 11,872 | −2.5% | — | −2.5% | 61% |
Tokens with at least three past unlocks that traded before and after.
How we measured it
Unlock dates and sizes come from each project’s own vesting rules, the same ones behind our token unlock calendar; we count every past unlock of at least 0.1% of the max supply. Prices are daily closes in UTC on a major exchange’s USDT markets.
“Week before” runs from eight days before to the close of the day before the unlock; “unlock day” is that day’s move; “week after” is the seven days from the close before the unlock. Each is the token’s move minus bitcoin’s. We report medians, so one wild week does not set the result.
This is a record of what happened, not a forecast, and many other things move prices in any given week. Prices read November 9, 2026.
Questions people ask
Not reliably in the week after. Across 304 unlocks, the median token moved −2.3% against bitcoin over the 7 days from the unlock, about the same as an ordinary week for the same tokens (−2.5%). The week before was −3.5%; only large unlocks stood out, at −8.7% in the week leading up to the date.
Unlocks of more than 2% of the max supply (34 in the data) fell further beforehand, a median −8.7% against bitcoin in the week before, and −2.2% in the week after.
Most tokens move with the market. Measuring each token against bitcoin over the same days takes out the market’s own swing, so what is left is closer to the effect of the unlock itself.
Every 7-day window for the same tokens over the same years, unlock or not: 11,872 windows. Over this period these tokens lagged bitcoin in 61% of ordinary weeks, so lagging after an unlock says little on its own.
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Information only, not financial advice. Past moves do not predict future ones. TrueHold is not affiliated with any project listed.